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                <text>sdsp_skyl_000065</text>
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                <text>"SKYLAB REENTRY LOG July 8 ⟶ July 11."</text>
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                <text>Pages 14 to 159 are unused.</text>
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                    <text>MSFC'S ROLE IN THE SKYLAB REACTIVATION MISSION
INTRODUCTION
ide 1
On July 11, 1979, Skylab impacted the Earth surface. The debris dispersion
area stretched from the South Eastern Indian Ocean across a sparsely
populated section of Western Australia.

This presentation discusses

in some detail the events leading to the reentry of Skylab and the role
the Marshall

Space Flight Center played in these events.

BACKGROUND
On February 9, 1974, Skylab systems were configured for a final power
down and Skylab was deactivated.

Prediction of solar cycle 20 activity,

the solar cycle predicted to begin in 1977, indicated that the final
attitude in which Skylab was left, the gravity gradient attitude, would
result in a potential storage period of 8 to 10 years. However, in the
fall of 1977 it was determined that Skylab had left the gravity gradient
attitude and was experiencing an increased orbital decay rate. This
was a result of greater than predicted solar activity at the beginning
of solar cycle 21.

This increased activity increased the drag forces

on the vehicle. Skylab was not predicted to reenter the Earth's atmos­
phere in late 1978 or early 1979 unless something was done to reduce
the drag forces acting upon it.

It was necessary to make a decision to

either accept an early uncontrolled reentry of Skylab or to attempt to
actively control Skylab in a lower drag attitude thereby extending its
orbital lifetime until a Shuttle mission could effect a boost or deorbit
maneuver with Skylab.

�2

0

S^3e 1A (leave up)
In order to verify what options could be accomplished with the onboard
Skylab systems, a small team of NASA engineers went to the Bermuda Ground
Station to establish communications and interrogate Skylab systems. On
March 6, 1978, the Airlock Module (AM) command and telemetry (TM) systems
were commanded on from the Bermuda Ground Station.

The reception of

t"he AM TM carrier at Bermuda was proof that the onboard AM system had
responded to the commands.

For the next several days, the AM electrical

power system was properly configured and the AM batteries charged whenever
the simultaneous conditions of ground station coverage at Bermuda and
solar energy availability permitted.

Subsequently AM power was trans­

ferred to the Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM) systems and the operational
status of the ATM systems was determined.

On March 11, 1978, power was

^applied to the ATM Attitude and Pointing Control System (APCS) bus which
in turn supplied power to the primary Apollo Telescope Mount Digital
Computer (ATMDC)/Workshop Computer Interface Unit (WCIU).

Power was

maintained on the APCS bus for approximately 5 minutes and the receipt
of ATMDC telemetry data at Bermuda was confirmed. The receipt of fcbi'fiC
data~irid±cated thatrthe primary ATMDC/WCIU hardware and attendant .soft­
ware were operational and cycling. On March 13, 1978, engineers concluded
the interrogation test on Skylab. The resulting data indicated no
discernible degradation of the Skylab systems during its 4 years of
—

orbital storage. Aided with this data,(the knowledge that Skylab was in
an unstable tumble prompted investigation into schemes which might extend
the orbital lifetime of Skylab.

#

�o

3
&lt;§)

Scheme Development and Operational Modes March 1978 to July 1979

The first scheme investigated was to use the onboard Thruster
Attitude Control System (TACS) to maintain a quasi-stable tumble
of Skylab.

However, it was soon determined that this option

would not extend Skylab lifetime sufficiently to correspond to
the operational readiness of the Space Shuttle for a possible
reboost or deorbit mission.

The only alternative left was to

reactivate and continuously control the Skylab in a minimum drag
attitude.
Slide 2

In order to accomplish this the End On Velocity Vector

(EOVV) minimum drag attitude control scheme was developed by MSEC
engineers..and-used-afher-bhe-4ntt-i-at- Skylab-reatrivatton- on

.June—1-4-r—4-9-7#:
The EOVV mode was a minimum drag attitude with the relatively
small surface areas of the front or back ends of Skylab being
pointed approximately along the velocity vector. This mode was
a modification of the Z Local Vertical (ZLV) mode (vehicle "Z"
axis along the local vertical) that was used during the original
Skylab Mission. fe-rte^e¥V-™rfer^^«W^^rdinat«-axe8
were r,ffs«^iightiy^om_theJLV^xes-d:o-align-the- vehicle-principle
^ax^S—with—the-ZLV-axes-*—lhajzehicl-e-was—theirToiled—such-that-i-ts
soLar—amays—poiinred-toward—the—sun near"orbttTn~n7ToTrWTaa^imum
power—eoHectrftra—and—att-ltude—reference—updatir.gr—Desaturation

oiL-GMG—momentum—was done-with- gravity gradient torques-and-was
_continuously~active ground-the~orbx"t.

�T h e r e w e r e two s u b s e t s o f t h e EOVV mode, EOVV A a n d EOVV B.
The EOVV B mode c a n b e t h o u g h t o f a s a b a c k w a r d EOVV A mode.
The EOW A mode h a d t h e S k y l a b Command M o d u l e d o c k i n g p o r t
p o i n t e d a l o n g t h e v e l o c i t y v e c t o r w h i l e t h e EOW B mode h a d t h e
aft end of the workshop pointed along the velocity vector. The
EOVV B mode w a s d e v e l o p e d t o p r o l o n g t h e l i f e o f CMG # 2 by
a l l o w i n g maximum s o l a r i m p i n g e m e n t o n CMG # 2 s p i n b e a r i n g s f o r
n e g a t i v e s u n a n g l e s . F o r t h e same r e a s o n , EOW A was u t i l i z e d
when t h e v e h i c l e e x p e r i e n c e d p o s i t i v e s o l a r a n g l e s .
The EOVV mode w a s u s e d i n t h e f i r s t p a r t o f t h e S k y l a b
R e a c t i v a t i o n M i s s i o n t o r e d u c e a s much a s p o s s i b l e t h e S k y l a b
d e s c e n t r a t e . I t was h o p e d t h a t t h e o r b i t a l l i f e o f S k y l a b
c o u l d b e e x t e n d e d u n t i l a r e b o o s t / d e o r b i t m i s s i o n by t h e S p a c e
S h u t t l e c o u l d b e l a u n c h e d . T h e e f f e c t o f t h e EOVV mode o n t h e
d e s c e n t r a t e i s shown i n t h e n e x t v i e w g r a p h ( S l i d e 3 )
T h e r e was a n o t i c e a b l e s l o w i n g down o f t h e S k y l a b f a l l when EOVV
was e n t e r e d J u n e 1 1 , 1 9 7 8 .

I t was e s t i m a t e d t h a t i f S k y l a b h a d

r e m a i n e d i n EOVV t h a t r e e n t r y c o u l d h a v e b e e n d e l a y e d u n t i l a t
lide 3

lease April of 1980.
Referr-in-g--to—slxde—1-A~,—the—transition - f r o m a-.no...control- -to a
c o n t x a l i e d - T o o d e - C s o l a r i n e r t i a l ) — o c c u r r e &lt; i ~ J u n e ~ £ . -^Tlris -was
-feTJ-owed—two—days—1-a t er"wh en—th-e—t-r an sifion-t o - -the- EOW-A
at-titude—oc-euired~.

1/

IA

It should be noted that transitions from the

o l d S k y l a b o p e r a t i o n a l modes ( S I , ZLV, e t c . ) t o t h e s e new o p e r a t i o n a l
¥ a
Or "— 11 0: (^ | rt)
m o d e s ^ r e q u i r e d many h o u r s o f e q u a t i o n a n d s c h e m e d e v e l o p m e n t , s o f t ­
ware implementation and verification, the generation of computer

�0

uplink loads and their verification, and finally close
surveillance of vehicle operation once the operational mode
was activated to insure that the vehicle responded as the theory
p r e d i c t e d i t w o u l d . N u m e r o u s m e e t i n g s w e r e h e l d w i t h i n MSFC
a n d J S C a n d a t NASA H e a d q u a r t e r s t o e n s u r e a l l l e v e l s o f NASA
Management approved and agreed with proposed Skylab operations.
For example, between January 1978 and the i n i t i a l Skylab SI
acquisition on June 9, 1978, four Skylab presentations were made
to Mr. Yardley, one to Dr. Frosch, and two to other headquarters
personnel.

,
±.t)

,

, -j ,v^

B.e£er°rl«^^
on June 28.

^

A

J

^
a transition from SOW A to SI occurred

This was necessary because of abnormal momentum s t a t e s

w h i c h c o u l d l e a d t o CMC g i m b a l s t o p p r o b l e m s . T h e p r o b l e m w a s
eventually traced to the inability of the strapdown updating
scheme to compensate f o r the movement of the i n e r t i a l reference,
particularly at high sun angles.

When t h i s w a s u n d e r s t o o d , a

strapdown update bias term was successfully used to compensate
for the observed Z axis drift due to orbit plane and sun motion.
On J u l y 6

the vehicle was again returned t o the EOW-A a t t i t u d e .

On J u l y 9 t o t a l v e h i c l e c o n t r o l w a s l o s t i n c l u d i n g a t t i t u d e
reference. The cause of t h i s loss of a t t i t u d e was due to a power
f a i l u r e . The vehicle had been placed in a power configuration
w i t h t h e AM b a t t e r i e s n o t o n t h e l i n e d u e t o t w o u n e x p l a i n e d
b a t t e r y c h a r g e r f a i l u r e s i n t h a t s y s t e m . T h e ATM p o w e r s y s t e m a n d
^

t h e AM s o l a r a r r a y s w e r e n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o c a r r y t h e l o a d i n t h e
EOVV m o d e c a u s i n g t h e ATM b a t t e r i e s t o a u t o m a t i c a l l y t r i p o f f
line.

As was done previously, i t was decided t o go from the

the

�a

m

T

c

e

•

...J

u n c o n t r o l l e d a t t i t u d e t o S I A (Uuly 1 9 ) a n d t h e n t o t h e EOVV-A
attitude (July 25).
\

— (X c-c

-?1

c

J

EOW-A t o EOVV-B T r a n s i t i o n
On November 4 , 1 9 7 8 , S k y l a b w a s m a n e u v e r e d 1 8 0 d e g r e e s f r o m
i t s n o r m a l EOW o r i e n t a t i o n w i t h t h e MDA p o i n t i n g t o w a r d t h e
p o s i t i v e v e l o c i t y v e c t o r (EOW-A) t o a new EOW o r i e n t a t i o n w i t h
t h e MDA p o i n t i n g t o w a r d t h e n e g a t i v e v e l o c i t y v e c t o r ( E O W - B ) .
The p u r p o s e o f t h i s m a n e u v e r was t o i n c r e a s e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y f o r
extended Skylab lifetime by providing the most favorable thermal
c o n d i t i o n s , i n EOW o p e r a t i o n , t o r e d u c e t h e s t r e s s o n CMG 2 .
A n a l y s i s o f S k y l a b d a t a a t MSFC o b t a i n e d d u r i n g EOW o p e r a t i o n u p
t o t h i s t i m e showed a r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f CMG 2
a n o m a l i e s , t h e s u n a n g l e , a n d t h e o p e r a t i n g t e m p e r a t u r e o f CMG
1i d e 4

2 (Slide 4).

This data indicated that the stress conditions on

CMG 2 c o u l d b e a v o i d e d o r r e d u c e d b y p r o v i d i n g a h i g h e r o p e r a t i n g
t e m p e r a t u r e e n v i r o n m e n t f o r CMG 2 .

The EOW-A o r i e n t a t i o n

p r o v i d e d m o r e s o l a r e x p o s u r e f o r CMG 2 a t p o s i t i v e s u n a n g l e s
w h i l e a n EOW-B o r i e n t a t i o n w o u l d p r o v i d e m o r e s o l a r e x p o s u r e
lide 2

a t n e g a t i v e s u n a n g l e s a s shown i n S l i d e 2 .
The 1 8 0 ^ t r a n s i t i o n m a n e u v e r was s c h e d u l e d f o r e a r l y November
1978 to coincide with the upcoming positive-to-negative change in
s u n a n g l e ( i . e . , s u n a n g l e movement f r o m N o r t h t o S o u t h o f t h e
orbit plane).

A modification to the flight software had to be

d e v e l o p e d (SWCR-S4016, b u f f e r 1 5 ) a n d was i m p l e m e n t e d t o a c c o u n t
f o r c o m p u t a t i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e EOW-A a n d

�7

EOVV-B orientations and to automate maneuver sequencing to
support the transition maneuvers.
Slide 5

The transition maneuver sequence was developed and simulated,
based on available station coverage (Slide 5) to minimize TACS
utilization and to provide favorable conditions for initiation
of EOVV-B operations.
Normal and contingency procedures to support the transition
maneuver were developed and executed from 11/2/78 through
11/4/78 with the transition maneuver taking place on 11/4/78 as
the sun angle passed through zero. It should be noted that trh^P
design and simulation effort enabled the maneuver plan to be
executed for no TACS usage, saving this limited resource for
future operations.

Skylab remained in the EOW-B attitude from November 4, 1978
until January 25, 1979.

During this time, all Skylab systems

functioned satisfactorily.
After Skylab was brought under active control, in a low-drag
attitude to minimize its rate of decay, it was decided in mid-1978
to accelerate the development of an orbital retrieval system
that might be accommodated on an early flight of the Space
Shuttle,

increasing chances of rendezvousing with Skylab.

A proposed mission sequence with the Skylab boost/deboost
51ide 6

options is shown in Slide 6.

�8
The rate of orbital decay, however, continued to increase due
to increased solar activity.

Skylab's onboard systems also

showed signs of deterioration and there were increasing concerns
over the Space Shuttle's schedule.

For these reasons, the

concept of Skylab recovery was terminated in December 1978.
At that time, it was decided to reorient and control the vehicle
in a solar inertial attitude which was the normal vehicle
orientation for original Skylab mission operations.
accomplished January 25, 1979.

This was

The vehicle remained in

SI control until June 20 when TEA control was activated.
TEA Control
As Skylab's altitude decreased, the magnitude of the aerodynamic
torques on the vehicle increased. Studies/indicated that vehicle
control in the solar inertial orientation would no longer be
possible below about 140 n.m. due to these increased aerodynamic
torques and the limited control authority available from the
Vehicle Control Moment Gyros (CMG's).

Aerodynamicists and

control engineers at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC),
while investigating vehicle orientations which produced minimal
disturbance torques on the vehicle, found certain orientations
where the summation of these disturbance torques was zero.
These attitudes were called Torque Equilibrium Attitudes (TEA s).
A TEA attitude control law was developed to utilize these zero
torque points.

This control law was unique because it was the

first spacecraft control scheme which used upper atmospheric

�9
aerodynamic torques to desaturate CMG momentum.

In the normal SI

Skylab mode, CMG momentum was managed by dumping excess momentum
using gravity gradient torques.

In a TEA attitude, the

aerodynamic torques and gravity gradient torques are equal and
opposite. By offsetting the vehicle slightly from this attitude,
the relative magnitudes of the gravity gradient and aerodynamic
torques can be increased or decreased as desired to maintain
the CMG momentum at the desired state.

Through a concentrated

effort at MSFC, the TEA control law was developed, programmed
and verified between January and May 1979.
There were several TEA attitudes and each resulted in different
atmospheric drag on the vehicle. The limiting factors in
maintaining control were meeting the electric power requirements
and being in a dense enough atmosphere to generate the desired
aerodynamic torques. Most of the TEA attitudes were unuseable
because the Skylab solar arrays could not collect sufficient
solar energy to run the various Skylab systems in the specified
attitude. Other attitudes could be used only during a range of
certain sun angles and below certain altitudes. Two of the
7

useable attitudes, the T275 and T121G are shown in Slide 7.
The T275 attitude has a smaller projection of surface area into
the direction of flight and a corresponding lower atmospheric
drag than the T121G attitude. By maneuvering between TEA
attitudes the drag on the vehicle could be modulated to slow or
speed the desired descent rate of Skylab. This provided the
capability to shift the reentry time several orbits if necessary.

�Based on early reentry predictions of mid-June 1979, initial
procedures were developed to begin TEA operations in the T121G
attitude on May 26, 1979.

At this time the vehicle altitude

was predicted to be approximately 150 n.m. and the sun angle profile
such that the T121G attitude would supply sufficient solar power
from this point to the predicted reentry. However, as the time
approached, it became apparent that Skylab was not reentering
as fast as predicted and reentry slipped to early July 1979.
As a result of this delay in reentry, a maneuver from T121G
to T121P or T275 would be required to provide sufficient power
over the sun angle range from 20 of May to reentry. Because of
this, and the fact that Skylab would be around 157 n.m. on
May 26, it was decided to delay TEA operations and stay in SI
control until late June 1979.

In the June 18-20 time frame,

Skylab altitude would be approaching its lower limit for SI
control (140 n.m.) and the sun angle would be such that the T121P
(Slide 8) attitude would provide sufficient power all the way to
reentry.
In addition to requiring only one TEA orientation for solar
power, this delay provided additional benefits. More time was
available for TEA control analysis; development of procedures
for power management, rate gyro bias compensation, TEA parameter
updating, and contingencies; and ground controller training.
Ori—May—2ff,—the alt ifu"de~"af"the vehicle was! approximately 160

TIJJL

Skylab-could be-controlled in the SI~ mode only until.

�11

The Skylab _.descent rate- and- expected
:Ms

solar—aetdv±ty~daTHicalTe3TTfhat

altitude VouSd be reached_
.th.is_time,-the_-.

- »•»
ware-avai-ia^ • Thw.

velocity vector and

perpendicular to th.orbital plane and the v
provide a high atmospheric drag on the ve
T^un- angle would-allows

the T275

atmospheric density wo

——
attitude to he useable,

^

^
^

It was planned to use the

,f ^

modulation during the fnal 36 hour

P

lated

orbit.

predicted reentry occurred during a high y P P

20 the delayed ZLV commands contain
7
3:24 «T, dune 20. t
^^ o£fsets were uplinked.

At

time to start TEA acquxsxt
At

At

8-17 GMT, the CMG

,30 CHT, TACS control ^^^second „

gimbal rate limit was mc
more

TEA
Slide 9

^

to

lnltlal

control authority during

•^

initiated at 12:53

for

phases of

^lnertial

control. The maneuver: sequ ^
^
^
X121P is shown in Slid

allM

^

^
^
q£^
Santiago station was

eoverage. At 13:01 CKT, shortly^
^
^
^^
acquired, the OlO's were c a g ^ ^ ^
new TEA attitude.
was complete.

At xo-

^^
^

�12

TEA Control Reacquisition
(?—

To support the normal maintenance of TEA control, t-he~ slope
matrix was programmed to receive updates by ground uplink. This
was a 3 by 3 matrix relating the momentum errors to attitude
errors about the torque equilibrium attitude. This slope matrix
was a function of atmospheric density and the TEA attitude.
Since atmospheric density was increasing with the vehicle
descent, the slope matrix required periodic adjustment.
At 16:13 GMT on June 24, the first slope matrix update since TEA
acquisition was uplinked. However, the flight program required
that the slope matrix elements be commanded in row order, but it
was uplinked from the ground in column order. This meant that
the elements in the slope matrix were reversed and the flight
program had actually received the transpose of the desired
, . ..
C-O-vJ
Vt
matrix. With an incorrect slope matrix, the vehicle cannot
Ujo-asJL cL
properly manage the CMG momentum and wifd slowly lose attitude
control.
The first pass through the TEA control calculations with the
transposed slope matrix occurred after the telemetry station was
lost. There was no indication of a problem until the next
station acquisition occurred at 17:44 GMT. The telemetry data
from this station showed that the CMG momentum was becoming
saturated, TEA control parameters were off-nominal, TACS had
been used and that, in general, TEA control authority was being
lost. An analysis of the DCS commands issued during the previous
pass was made and it was discovered that the transpose of the
slope matrix had been transmitted.

�13

A contingency TEA control reacquisition procedure had been
previously developed for use during the initial TEA control
acquisition. Although this contingency procedure was developed
assuming that TEA control might be lost due to an offset in the
assumed X axis center of pressure, it also applied to the
current situation. The commands necessary for the procedure
were already resident at the ground stations and were readily
available.

The reacquisition procedure was executed when the

next station coverage occurred over Madrid.
The entire process of losing TEA control and reacquiring TEA
control used approximately 1100 lb f-sec of TACS fuel. Although
this fuel usage

had been unplanned, there was still sufficient

fuel remaining for any required maneuvers prior to reentry.

�14

Skvlab Reentry

............&lt; ™

i
,Hlitv
amount of reentry control capability.

Procedures to maneuver

Skylab from the high-drag T121P attitude to a low-drag
(T275)

or ZLV attitude were developed to provide a means o

prion By maintaining a low-drag
shifting the reentry predrctron. y
i A Tip pxtended over that m
attitude, the orbit lifetime could be exten
T121P attitude. This would make it possible to s r
h.f o£ high population density
predicted reentry from an orbrt of hrgh p
one with a lower population density.
A &lt;-Viat~ TEA control (T121P) °r T275
Since

several factors indicate

m

^gQ

and TACS only control could no
n

m

procedures were also developed to initiate

VI
ilts in a predictable average drag
tumble. A random tumble results
P
A-i «-t-i nns By controlling tne

;rr.r:::irr::-r;rrrir
::::rr:jr.-::.......----«
.
i.n predicted reentry and
July 9 at ^ hours prior
Beginning on July
Headquarters,
h six hours thereafter, NORAD supplied NASA Hea
each six nour
reentry predictions.
MSFC and JSC with Skylab tracking a a
these centers was constantly maintained
K
Communications between these
staining
cxi-Tvrrk loop. Decisions pertami g
— * -lecosraunications netw k
p
_^
^
to

executing procedures

M A cA H P A dnuarters under

or

^
^

�15

3

As it turned out, only T121P control was required.

NORAD data

received between the 48 and 18-hour-to-go time points indicated
that Skylab would reenter during the minimum population density
orbit, but the predicted impact point was in the highest
population density area of the orbit.
This was reconfirmed at the 12-hour time-to-go point. The
decision was therefore to continue the T121P attitude until
altitude of approximately 80 n.m., at which point the vehicle
control was finally terminated when Skylab was commanded to
tumble approximately 9 hours before reentry.

(Reentry took

place on July 11, 1979, at 16:37 - 28 GMT.) The vehicle tumble
Slide /O

decreased the vehicle drag and by selection of the time before
entry to initiate the tumble, an extension of the footpring
by approximately one quarter of a revolution was realized.

�16

FINAL COMMENTS
D u r i n g b o t h t h e p r i m a r y a n d r e a c t i v a t i o n m i s s i o n s , many S k y l a b
s y s t e m s w e r e r e q u i r e d t o o p e r a t e i n modes n e v e r i n t e n d e d b y i t s
designers and to accomplish tasks dictated by unforseen events.
T h e S k y l a b r e a c t i v a t i o n m i s s i o n o f f e r e d NASA a u n i q u e o p p o r t u n i t y
to evaluate complex power generation, mechanical, computer and
environmental control systems after having been in a space
environment for over six years. Further, these systems were in
orbital storage for over four of the six years in an uncontrolled
s p a c e e n v i r o n m e n t b e f o r e b e i n g r e a c t i v a t e d i n March 1 9 7 8 . S y s t e m
degradation was found to be minimal.
U n i q u e c o n t r o l s c h e m e s w e r e d e v e l o p e d (EOW a n d TEA) w h i c h e n a b l e d
Skylab to fly through the gravity gradient/aerodynamic torque
transition region. Torque equilibrium points were discovered
where gravity gradient and aerodynamic torques balanced. At
these points very l i t t l e vehicle control authority was required to
maintain control. Moreover, vehicle orientations at these points
were such that one could choose attitudes exhibiting high or low
v e h i c l e - d r a g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . By m o d u l a t i n g b e t w e e n t h e s e
orientations, the rate of vehicle descent could be increased or
decreased, forcing i t into an impact orbit characterized by a low
population density.

After control of Skylab was regained in

June 1978, a t an a l t i t u d e of 218 nautical miles, the vehicle was
e s s e n t i a l l y u n d e r c o n t r o l down t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y 8 0 n a u t i c a l m i l e s
b e f o r e i t w a s commanded t o r e e n t r y . ( R e e n t r y t o o k p l a c e o n
J u n e 1 1 , 1 9 7 9 , a t 1 6 : 3 7 - 2 8 GMT.)

The vehicle tumble decreased

�17
the vehicle drag and by selection of the time before entry
to initiate the tumble, an extension of the footpring by
approximately one quarter of a revolution was realized.

XIKKKXEBKIMKMES

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          <element elementId="41">
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            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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ll/tS/fcO

SATELLITE DRAG STUDY

G r a n t Number NSG 8 0 6 9
Final Report

F o r t he period 1 April 1979 to 3.1 July 1980
Principal Investigator
• J a c k W. Slowey

Prepared for
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama 35812

October 1980

Smithsonian Institution
Astrophysical Observatory
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138

The S m i t h s o n i a n A s t r o p h y s i c a l O b s e r v a t o r y
and the Harvard College Observatory
a r e members o f t h e
Center for Astrophysics

The NASA T e c h n i c a l O f f i c e r f o r t h i s g r a n t i s D r . R . E . S m i t h , Code E S 8 1 ,
Space Science Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, Marshall Space
Flight Center, Alabama 35812.

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�SATELLITE DRAG STUDY

G r a n t Number NSG 8069
F i n a l Report

For t h e p e r i o d 1 A p r i l 1979 t o 31 J u l y 1980
Principal Investigator
Jack W. Slowey

Prepared for
National A e r o n a u t i c s and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
Marshall Space F l i g h t C e n t e r , Alabama 35812

O c t o b e r 1980

Smithsonian I n s t i t u t i o n
Astrophysical Observatory
Cambridge, M a s s a c h u s e t t s 02138

The S m i t h s o n i a n A s t r o p h y s i c a l O b s e r v a t o r y
and t h e Harvard C o l l e g e Observatory
a r e members o f t h e
Center for Astrophysics

The NASA Technical O f f i c e r f o r t h i s g r a n t i s Dr. R.E. S m i t h , Ctide ES81,
Space S c i e n c e L a b o r a t o r y , Marshall Space F l i g h t C e n t e r , Marshall Space
Flight Center, Alabama 35812.

��1.

Introduction

The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO), under a
grant from NASA (NSG8058), first began an analysis of the effects
of atmospheric drag on the Skylab satellite, 1973-27A, in the
fall of. 1977. Under that grant we determined, from orbital data
obtained from NORAD, the observed atmospheric drag on Skylab with
a resolution of 5 days or better in an interval that was
eventually to extend from March 1974 to the end of 1978.
At the
same time, we compared the observed drag with that predicted by
an atmospheric model and made numerous forecasts, based on
predicted solar and geomagnetic activity, of the orbital lifetime
of the satellite.
The current grant work at SAO is essentially a continuation
of the original grant work.
Under this grant we continued to
monitor the drag on Skylab and to make lifetime predictions up to
the time of final decay. These activities were described in some
detail in an earlier report and will not be covered again here.
We also continued to act as consultant to MSFC in matters
relating to our various atmospheric models and, in particular, to
the implementation at MSFC of our most recent (1977) model.
These activities have been conducted on a relatively informal
basis, by telephone and letter, and will not be described here.
We have also conducted a "post mortem" analysis to determine how
the techniques that we used on Skylab might be improved in the
future, especially with respect to the question of separating
possible variations in area-mass ratio from departures of the
atmospheric density from model values.
A short summary of this
work, together with some suggestions for future work, are given
in what follows.

2.

Technical Progress

We had hoped to utilize a second satellite in a comparative
analysis of atmospheric drag during the final portion of the
lifetime of Skylab.
The object was to see if the drag on a
second satellite
could
be
successfully
used
to
separate
variations in the observed drag on Skylab that might be due to
variations in the area-mass ratio from those that are due to
variations in atmospheric density. An atmospheric model alone is
not entirely adequate for this purpose since present models, as
good as they are in representing the large variations in density
that occur, are subject to appreciable systematic errors having
characteristic times of up to a month or more. These errors are
due mainly to failure of the decimetric solar flux to adequately
represent the variations in the solar EUV radiation that actually
heats the thermosphere and to similar inadequacy of the planetary
geomagnetic index as an indicator of the heating associated with
geomagnetic disturbance (and of present models of that very
complex phenomenon).
Except for short intervals in which

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�PAGE 2

geomagnetic disturbance may dominate, the densities determined
from drag on different satellites are generally quite consistent
among themselves. Thus it should be possible to infer density at
another location with greater accuracy from the drag on a
satellite of known area-mass ratio than is possible from any
model based on the usual geophysical parameters.
Of course, a
model would
still
be
required
to
provide
a
means
for
interpolating between the location of the probe satellite and the
desired location.
Unfortunately, the problems of data acquisition, program
development (mainly the conversion of several large programs to
run on a new computer), and processing proved to be too great to
carry out the projected analysis within the constraints of this
grant.
Instead, we made use of densities we had previously
obtained from the drag on the Explorer 32 satellite (1966-44A) to
make a comparison with the orbital accelerations of Skylab that
we had determined under the earlier grant (NSG 8058).
The
interval covered by this comparison was 265 days beginning in
late March, 1974.
The orbital acceleration (rates of change of the mean
motion) of Skylab that we determined from the available NORAD
orbits are plotted for this interval in Figure 1.
These were
obtained by drawing a smooth curve through the observed values of
the argument of latitude (M +w) and numerically differentiating
the curve using a 5-day time-step. In the same figure are shown
the corresponding accelerations determined by differentiation of
the results of numerical integration of the orbit using an
atmospheric model and, at the bottom, the ratios of the observed
accelerations to those computed from the orbit integration. The
model used in the integration was an updated version of Jacchia's
1970 model (Jacchia, 1970) and the assumed area-mass ratio was
0.0369 cm2/g. The drag coefficient was allowed- to vary around
the orbit, but the effective value was very close to 2.24
throughout the interval.
The relatively large short-term variations in the orbital
acceleration seen
in
Figure 1 are
due to variations
in
thermospheric heating by both solar EUV radiation and the
particle precipitation and/or ionospheric currents associated
with geomagnetic disturbance. In models, these two heat sources
are tied, in the first instance, to the 10.7-cm solar radio flux
and, in the second instance, to the Kp planetary geomagnetic
index.
In Figure 2, we have plotted 5-day means of both the
10.7-cm flux and the Kp geomagnetic index, on scales that are
roughly equal in terms or their expected effect on the exospheric
temperature of the atmosphere (the scale for Kp is slightly
exaggerated in this regard compared to that for *10#7). As can
be seen, the two indices are quite independent of each other and
may act either in unison or in opposition.

��PAGE 3

In Figure 4, we have plotted the exospheric temperature Tj
that results from . the 1970 model when only the short-term
variation in the 10.7-cm flux (the so-called "27 day" variation)
and the geomagnetic variation are taken into account.
These
temperatures were computed from
Tj = 665.2+1.8 (

P10#7 ~ 85.) +28 Kp+ 0.03 exp (Kp),

where F
Kpare the 5-day mean values from Figure 2.
We
7and
give them"here only to better illustrate the expected short-term
variations in density in the interval being studied.
Note that
these temperatures differ somewhat in detail from the computed
accelerations in Figure 1. This is because the values in Figure
1, as a result of the differentiation process, actually represent
means over a slightly longer interval than 5 days.
In comparing the observed acceleration of Skylab from Figure
1 with either the corresponding model values or the temperatures
of Figure 3, it will be noticed that several of the expected
sharp maxima or minima are missing in the observed values. It is
these points on the plot that result in the more prominent
"outlyers" in the ratio of observed to computed acceleration.
There is little doubt that some of th,ese apparent departures from
the model are, in fact, due mostly to errors in the observed
values resulting from the relatively crude method used to derive
them.
And, it follows that the scatter in the values of the
ratio is adversely effected generally for the same reason.
This
difficulty could, of course, be overcome by differentiating with
a considerably larger time step, but this would automatically
rule out the possibility of resolving shorter-term variations of
any kind.
In Figure 4 we have plotted 5—day means of atmospheric
densities obtained from analysis of the drag on the Explorer 32
satellite.
The densities are those at the effective height
(approximately 1/2 scale-height above
the
true height) of
perigee.
The average effective height in the interval plotted
was about 300 km.
These densities were obtained by direct
analysis of radar observations from selected sensors.
The
densities were originally determined with a general resolution of
1 day and a resolution of 0.5 day during larger geomagnetic
disturbances. The 5-day means plotted in the figure should have
a relative precision of close to 1%.
These densities confirm the accuracy of the model with
respect to 4 of the 5 worst values of the ratio in Figure 1. The
exception is the point at MJD 42205, where the minimum predicted
by the model and missing in the Skylab accelerations is also
missing in the densities determined from Explorer 32.
Other
differences in the Skylab accelerations are also confirmed as
being atmospheric in origin and not due to errors in the observed
values.

�V

�PAGE 4

At t h i s p o i n t we s h o u l d m e n t i o n t h a t our o l d e r a t m o s p h e r i c
models a r e n o t c u r r e n t l y o p e r a t i o n a l a t SAO due p r i m a r i l y t o a
change i n c o m p u t e r s .
I t was o u r i n t e n t i o n i n t h e p r e s e n t
analysis t o compute model v a l u e s f o r both S k y l a b and E x p l o r e r 32
using our most r e c e n t a t m o s p h e r i c model ( J a c c h i a , 1 9 7 7 ) , which i s
operational, and t o make a c o m p a r i s o n between t h e two s a t e l l i t e s
using the r a t i o s t o t h e s e v a l u e s . Much t o our s u r p r i s e , however,
the o r b i t a l a c c e l e r a t i o n s of S k y l a b computed w i t h t h e new model
did not agree i n d e t a i l w i t h t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s a s w e l l a s d i d
those from t h e o l d e r model n o r d i d t h e d e n s i t i e s computed f o r
Explorer 32 r e p r e s e n t t h e d e t a i l s of t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s a s w e l l
as i t was e x p e c t e d t h e y would.
I t i s n o t y e t known w h e t h e r t h i s a p p a r e n t d i f f i c u l t y w i t h
the new model i s i n t r i n s i c o r i s somehow due t o t h e way i t was
implemented i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r c i r c u m s t a n c e s .
The o n l y o t h e r
application of t h e model t h a t we have made i n a d r a g s i t u a t i o n
was during t h e f i n a l d e c a y of S k y l a b . I t seemed t o perform q u i t e
well in t h a t c a s e .
T h a t was h a r d l y a d e f i n i t i v e t e s t , however,
and i t may w e l l b e t h a t t h e most i m p o r t a n t r e s u l t of t h e p r e s e n t
analysis i s t h a t
it
revealed
a
major
difficulty in
the
model-related, a p p a r e n t l y ,
t o t h e "improved" model of
the
geomagnetic v a r i a t i o n t h a t i t i n c o r p o r a t e s .
When means of t h e computed d e n s i t i e s f o r E x p l o r e r 32 were
taken over 10-day i n t e r v a l s , t h e y were q u i t e smooth and d i d
reproduce most of t h e s y s t e m a t i c d e p a r t u r e s o b s e r v e d i n t h e
ratios for S k y l a b .
I n view of t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h t h e model,
we do not f e e l t h a t we a r e j u s t i f i e d i n p r e s e n t i n g t h o s e r e s u l t s
as proven f a c t , however.
We m u s t , a t l e a s t f o r t h e time b e i n g ,
consider t h e a n a l y s i s t o have been " i n c o n c l u s i v e " .

3.

Conclusions and Recommendations

an
Our e x p e r i e n c e w i t h S k y l a b d e m o n s t r a t e d t h e need
automated p r o c e d u r e f o r t h e h i g h - r e s o l u t i o n d e t e r m i n a t i o n of
densities from s a t e l l i t e d r a g .
For r e a s o n s of e f f i c i e n c y ,
should be an a n a l y t i c p r o c e d u r e a n d , l i k e t h e program t h a t
previously e x i s t e d a t SAO, s h o u l d be based on d i r e c t a n a l y s i s of
the individual o b s e r v a t i o n s of t h e p a r t i c u l a r s a t e l l i t e i n o r d e r
to yield t h e g r e a t e s t p o s s i b l e p r e c i s i o n and t i m e r e s o l u t i o n . As
a p r a c t i c a l m a t t e r , i t s h o u l d b e f u l l y a u t o m a t i c and f r e e of
reliance on hand methods of any k i n d .
I t would be e x t r e m e l y
valuable i n a v a r i e t y of programs i n o r b i t a l dynamics, such a s
the s t u d i e s we made of t h e d r a g on S k y l a b and t h e kind of
comparative a n a l y s i s we s u g g e s t i s f e a s i b l e i n t h e c a s e of
s a t e l l i t e s w i t h unknown o r v a r y i n g a r e a - m a s s r a t i o s , and a s a
research t o o l
that
could contribute
significantly
to the
improvement of models of t h e t h e r m o s p h e r e and e x o s p h e r e .
We
recommend t h a t MSFC s e r i o u s l y c o n s i d e r t h e development of such a
program.

�'

�PAGE 5
We would a l s o recommend t h a t c o n s i d e r a t i o n be g i v e n t o t h e
possibility of u t i l i z i n g t h i s program i n a p r o j e c t t o monitor a
small number of s a t e l l i t e s on a c o n t i n u o u s b a s i s .
No d e n s i t i e s
from s a t e l l i t e d r a g have been d e t e r m i n e d i n any a p p r e c i a b l e
quantity s i n c e 1 9 7 4 .
T h e r e a r e , however, some problems i n
thermospheric s t r u c t u r e and model development t h a t would b e n e f i t
greatly from t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of s u c h d e n s i t i e s . There i s s t r o n g
evidence i n measurements of s o l a r EUV i r r a d i a n c e , f o r example, of
major d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e c u r r e n t s o l a r c y c l e and t h e
previous one ( H i n t e r e g g e r , 197 9 ) .
Our a n a l y s i s of S k y l a b
revealed t h a t t h e r e s p o n s e of t h e a t m o s p h e r e r e l a t i v e t o t h e
decimetric f l u x was n o t g r e a t l y d i f f e r e n t i n t h e two c y c l e s . The
exact nature of what d i f f e r e n c e may e x i s t remains t o be s e e n ,
however, and i t would seem t h a t d r a g a n a l y s i s o f f e r s t h e o n l y
means by which i t can be a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d .
Densities
determined from d r a g h a v e t h e a d v a n t a g e of c o n t i n u i t y ( t h e d r a g
record extends back t o 1958) and freedom from t h e problems of
cross-calibration
between
experiments
that
is
lacking
in
densities
determined
by
mass-spectrometers
and
other
satellite-borne i n s t r u m e n t s .

�•

�PAGE 6

References

Hinteregger, H.E.
1979 Development of s o l a r c y c l e 21 o b s e r v e d i n EUV spectrum and
J.
Geophys.
R e s . , 84, pp
atmospheric a b s o r p t i o n s .
1933-1938.
Jacchia, L.G.
1970 New s t a t i c models of t h e t h e r m o s p h e r e and e x o s p h e r e w i t h
empirical t e m p e r a t u r e p r o f i l e s .
Smithsonian Astrophys.
Obs. Spec. R p t .
No. . 3 1 3 , 87 p p .
1977 Therraospheric t e m p e r a t u r e , d e n s i t y , and c o m p o s i t i o n :
models.
Smithsonian Astrophys.
Obs.
Spec.
Rpt.
375, 106 p p .

new
No.

��PAGE 7
These captions pertain to the following figures (1-4).
Figure 1.

Observed orbital acceleration
of
Skylab
(top),
acceleration
computed
from an atmospheric model
(middle), and
ratio
of
observed
to
computed
acceleration (bottom).

Figure 2.

5-day means of 10.7 cm solar
Kpgeomagnetic index (bottom).

Figure 3.

Exospheric temperature computed for just
variation and the geomagnetic variation.

the

27-day

Figure 4.

5-day means of observed densities at effective
for the Explorer 32 satellite.

height

flux

(top)

and

��PAGE 8

42125

. MJD

42225

42325

1974
Figure 1

��PAGE 9

IT)

IU-

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CM

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CM

to

CM

m
CM
CM
CM

Q
"3

in
O £
o ^
N

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CM

E

o
Figure 4

����</text>
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C2

\A/v V ^
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

iii

ABSTRACT

iv

I.

INTRODUCTION

1

II.

PREDICTED FOOTPRINT

2

III.

RECONSTRUCTION OF SKYLAB FOOTPRINT

4

IV.

SUMMARY

7

V.

CONCLUSIONS

9

REFERENCES

19

ii

�LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
TABLE
1

PAGE
Recovered Skylab Debris

10

1

Predicted Skylab Reentry Scenario

12

2

Skylab Predicted Debris Footprint
Comparison

13

3

Relationship of Footprint Size to
Breakup Altitude and'BC

14

4

Skylab Altitude from NORAD Vectors

15

5

Skylab Debris Envelopes

10

6

Skylab Impact Corridor

-17

7

Map of Footprint

FIGURE

18

iii

�ABSTRACT
This report documents the location and extent of the impact
corridor of the Skylab vehicle. Included in this discussion
are summaries of the predicted breakup sequences and result­
ing footprint, methodology for reconstructing the actual
breakup sequence and footprint, and an assessment of the
overall impact footprint size.
Questions concerning information contained herein should be
directed to Marshall Space Flight Center, EL25, Lee Varnado,
AC 205, 453-1163.

iv

�I.

INTRODUCTION

When the Skylab vehicle reentered the earth's atmosphere
on July 11, 1979, a great deal of attention was, quite
naturally, focused on the question of where the surviv­
ing elements would impact- This report addresses that
question.
Included in this report are brief descriptions of the
predicted size of the impact area (footprint), the
reconstruction of the actual impact area, and some per­
tinent conclusions.

1

�II.

PREDICTED FOOTPRINT

In studies performed in 1970 and 1973, personnel of the
Lockheed Missiles and Space Company (LMSC) predicted that,
assuming, the Sky lab vehicle began to break up at 400,000 &lt;rfeet (65 nmi or 120 km), debris from the Solar Arrays
would begin to impact approximately 3600 nmi (6667 km)
downrange from the breakup point (See References 1 and 2).
This would define the "heel" of the impact footprint and
all other debris would impact downrange of this point.
The maximum distance any debris would travel, the "toe"
of the footprint, would be 7400 nmi (13705 km) from the
initial breakup point. Debris from the ATM was predicted
to impact in this area. Figure 1 shows the predicted
breakup sequence and associated altitudes, as forecast by
LMSC. This figure is only included to illustrate the
breakup sequence expected, and no significance should be
attached to the relative positions of the traces after
breakup, as it is not to scale.
Shortly before Skylab reentered, in preparing for the
footprint reconstruction activity, personnel from MSFC
(EL25) performed a brief reentry study to assess the
adequacy of our preparations. As a check, we compared our
impact dispersions with those from the LMSC study (using
the LMSC-predicted breakup sequence) and the results, with
one exception, were in reasonable agreement. The one ex­
ception was the ATM case, with MSFC predicting impact some
2500 nmi (4630 km) farther downrange than LMSC. This
difference could be accounted for by a difference in the
Coefficient of Drag (CQ) used in the two studies. Although
no detailed LMSC data are now available, one of the engi­
neers involved in the LMSC study recalled using a CD term
no smaller than 0.3 for the intact ATM. The MSFC-determined
CD for the ATM was 0.1, a difference which could easily
cause the downrange shift in the impact location. The
results of the two studies are compared in Figure 2.
This study also served to provide us with a priori knowledge
of the sensitivity of the footprint size to reentry parameters.
The size of the footprint is a function of both the breakup
altitude and the Ballistic Coefficient (BC) of the resulting
pieces. The BC of any element is a function of its mass (M),
area (A), and drag characteristics (CD) and is calculated:
BC =

M

CDA

For breakup at any specified altitude, elements with
greatly different BC's will produce a larger footprint than

2

�elements whose BC's are substantially the same. Also, given
a set of BC's, breakup at higher altitudes will create a
larger footprint than if these same elements break up at a
lower altitude. The sketches in Figure 3 illustrate this
relationship; however, this generality must be applied to
Skylab with some caution. Due to the nature of the vehicle,
the aerodynamic characteristics change markedly each time an
element separates from the OWS. For example, when the OWS
and ATM Solar Arrays separated, the mass loss was more than
offset by the reduced area, with the result that the BC
actually increased. This moved the impact point of the re­
maining elements farther downrange.
The problem of estimating impact location is complicated by
the fact that each time a breakup event occurs, a new BC
for the resulting elements must be determined. The general
philosophy we used was to determine the trajectory of each
major element (Solar Arrays, OWS, ATM, etc.) to a specified
breakup altitude, then run only the resulting pieces with
the smallest and largest BC's (taken from the LMSC reports)
to impact. This defined the expected limits of each major
element without requiring undue amounts of computer time or
manpower. The same philosophy was used in the footprint
reconstruction activity which is discussed in the succeeding
paragraphs.

3

�III.

RECONSTRUCTION OF SKYLAB FOOTPRINT

As has already been pointed out, the length of the impact
footprint is determined by the altitude at which an element
breaks up and the Ballistic Coefficients of the resulting
pieces. Since LMSC had previously estimated, in References
1 and 2, the BC's of the major assemblies (OWS, ATM, AM, IU),
the prime concern was to define the altitude(s) at which
these assemblies began to break up. It should be emphasized
that this activity, while based on available data, is still
somewhat of an art and not purely analytical, due to the
lack of precise event timing,uncertainty about size and
shape of elements after breakup, and the accuracy limits of
observations. Essentially, the procedure was to adjust the
breakup altitudes so that the predicted BC's resulted in
reentry profiles which agreed with the available data.
Data used to reconstruct the reentry history came from
several sources. They were:
o

Special perturbation vectors from NORAD

o

Tracking from the radars at Bermuda and Ascension
Islands on the final revolution

o

Telemetry data while over Ascension and Bermuda
Islands

o

Special altitude observations from NORAD

o

Locations of recovered debris

In addition to the above data, state vectors provided by
NORAD, especially those received in the final 24 hours, were
assessed to insure continuity of the trajectory. The follow­
ing paragraphs describe in more detail the data used and how
it affected the footprint determination.
During the 48 hours prior to reentry, a very important
source of data was the special state vectors provided by
NORAD. These vectors differed from the standard vectors in
that they were determined from fewer sets of tracking data
and thus were not as strongly influenced by the effects of
long-term perturbations, such as solar activity. The im­
portance of these vectors is that they were used to help
determine the time at which any maneuver to shift the
probable impact point should be initiated. This determina­
tion was made possible by analyzing the family of impact
points resulting from these vectors. The initial reconstruc­
tion activity used these predicted impact points before other
data was available to help assess the probability of a

4

�specific breakup sequence. These state vectors also proved
valuable in helping determine the aerodynamic profile affect­
ing the vehicle as it approached the reentry altitude. The
altitude history derived from these vectors is shown in
Figure 4. This altitude profile fit our reconstruction very
well and increased our confidence that we had a good estimate
of the altitude profile to begin the analysis which was based
on the T—7 hrs NORAD vector.

:

Sets of tracking data were provided by the Bermuda and
Ascension Island radars on the final revolution. Data from
these trackers indicated an altitude of approximately 62 nmi
(115 km) and 57 nmi (105 km) respectively, over these sites.
Each of these trackers reported contact with a single target
during their observation; this would indicate that separation
of the ATM from the OWS had not occurred, at least down to
57 nmi (105 km). This is a significant point, since footprint
^ predictions had been predicated on breakup beginning at 65 nmi
(120.4 km).
Further confidence in a later-than-expected breakup was pro­
vided by analyzing downlinked electronic data received while
the vehicle was over Bermuda. This data indicated that the
OWS and ATM solar arrays were still intact and functioning
at that point. It appears that sometime after the Bermuda
pass, and prior to Ascension acquisition, the OWS solar arrays,
while still attached, may have folded back against the OWS.
Analysis of the Ascension telemetry data supports this
conclusion since, during this pass, downlinked electrical
data indicated the OWS Array was still intact but no longer
yielding expected currents and voltages.
Subsequent to the tracking data provided by the Ascension
Island site, some special observations were received from
NORAD. These observations consisted of the altitude and
time at which various elements disintegrated. It is not
possible to concretely establish a relationship between the
observations and the specific element, but given other data
(aerodynamic characteristics, predicted breakup sequence,
and location of recovered pieces), it is possible to use
this data to support a probable sequence of events. The
procedure used was to construct theoretical breakup sequences
based on available data and then determine a "most probable"
sequence based on how well the altitude profile (vs. time)
of each fit these special observations. Figure 5 shows how
the ATM, OWS and AM debris envelopes from the most probable
breakup sequence compared to these observations. It is
clear from this data that nearly all of the observations are
contained within the OWS/IU/AM debris envelope. This further
supports the breakup sequence reconstruction.

5

�The final set of data available was the actual location of
recovered debris. While much of the debris impacted in the
Indian Ocean, several pieces were recovered on land. These
pieces were from the OWS and AM and were found in an area
within the reconstructed reentry corridor and between
Esperance and Rawlinna in Southwestern Australia. No debris
from the ATM has been recovered, and it is assumed that,
because of its higher BC, all this debris probably impacted
northeast of Rawlinna (See Figure 6). This is a very
sparsely settled area, practically inaccessible, and it is
doubtful if any of the ATM debris will ever be found.
Table 1 provides a list of the recovered pieces and their
location.

6

�mm

IV.

HI

SUMMARY

Analysis of all available data leads us to believe that
breakup of the Skylab assembly occurredat somewhat lower
altitudes- than predicted. While it is impossible to be
precise concerning the breakup sequence, the one deter­
mined by this effort, summarized below, does fit well with
all the data available to date.
The Solar Arrays, instead of breaking off cleanly, probably
folded back against the main structure, and remained attached
to a much lower altitude than expected before breaking off.
This served to reduce the size of the footprint, since the
minimum uprange point (the "heel") is determined by the
Solar Arrays impact. The actual breakup process probably -fadid not begin until approximately 54 nmi (100 km) altitude,
when the ATM and Solar Arrays separated from the OWS
assembly.
The ATM, which as a separate entity had a very high BC
compared to the other elements, traveled the greatest dis­
tance downrange, probably impacting northeast of Rawlinna
(dashed area on Figure 6). Failure to recover any ATM
debris makes this a somewhat hypothetical conclusion, but
the separation point is almost mandated by the better-known
reentry histories of other elements, discussed below, and
the resultant ATM trajectory is based on known aerodynamic
data. The failure to recover any ATM debris could well be
due to the probability that all of it impacted northeast of
Rawlinna. The special NORAD observations, shown in Figure 5,
do not fall within the ATM envelope resulting from this
analysis, indicating that those observations were the result
of OWS, IU, or AM debris. With the currently available data,
it is not possible to determine the point at which the ATM
itself began to break up and the length of the resulting
footprint (Figure 6 represents a maximum dispersion).
The IU and AM probably separated from the OWS around 44 nmi
(81.5 km). Locations of AM debris support this conclusion
and also indicate that this element probably did not break
up until near impact. Additional support is provided by the
relationships of the OWS, AM, and IU debris envelopes to the
special NORAD tracking observations, as shown in Figure 5.
Separation at altitudes different than 44 nmi (81.5 km)
do not fit these observations nearly so well. The location
of recovered debris indicates the OWS probably began break­
ing up around 42 nmi (77.8 km), which caused much of this
debris to impact in the Indian Ocean.

7

�• a table compares the -P^Se^edfcfe^
fe^fncHevllo^ by this analysts wrth th
sequence.

-

Predicted

IKES™
SSSSST.
Element
Solar Arrays

(nmi/Hm)

54/100
54/100

ATM
IU, AM/MDA

44/81.5

(nmi/km)

(nmi/km)

54/100

65/120.4

(1)

58/107. 4

(2)

48/88.9

42/77.8

45/83.3

UJKSU
(nmi/knO

65/120.4
45/83.3
48/88.9
45/83.3

OWS

(1)
(2)

• •
t data to estimate accurately,
insufficien
* Afferent BC's recovered xn nea
indicates bieahup near impact.

8

proximity

�V.

CONCLUSIONS

The reconstructed Skylab footprint begins with the impact
(theoretical) of the Solar Arrays' debris at 46.9S, 94.4E
and extends to 26.OS, 131.2E, the maximum distance expected
to be traveled by any of the surviving pieces. Figure 7
is included to illustrate the extent of the footprint, the
length of which is approximately 2140 nmi (3963 km),
1660 nmi (3074 km) less than predicted. The difference
is due to the lower-than-predicted occurrence of all the
separation and breakup events. The reluctance of Skylab
to break up not only reduced the size of the footprint, but
moved the entire footprint farther downrange than expected.
The absence of debris to pinpoint a "heel" (Solar Arrays)
or "toe" (ATM debris) precludes any concrete determination
of the footprint size, but the reentry sequence proposed
here fits all available data quite well. Thus, it appears
that the impact footprint described is a reasonable one.

9

�TABLE 1
RECOVERED SKYLAB DEBRIS

ITEMS

PROBABLE SOURCE

LOCATION

Charred Fragments

OWS

33.9S, 121.9E (In Esperance)

Burned Material

ows

33.9S, 121.9E (In Esperance)

Aluminum 356 Casting

OWS

33.7S, 122.IE (20 mi NE of
Experance)

Foam Fiberglass
Beam Section

OWS

33.9S, 122.0E (9 mi E of
Esperance)

H20 Tank

OWS

33.8S, 122.0E (9 mi NE of
Esperance)

OWS

33.9S, 122.IE (10 mi E. of
Esperance)

Aft End
H20 Tank
10' Steel Strip

OWS
(H20 Tank)

33.9S, 122.3E (25 mi E of
Esperance)

Heat Exchanger

OWS
(H20 Cooler)

33.9S, 122.IE (12 mi E. of
Esperance)

Segment of
Fiberglass Sphere

33.9S, 122.IE (11 mi E of
Esperance)

OWS

33.9S, 122.IE (11 mi E of
Esperance)

Insulation

OWS
(Bulkhead)

Aluminum Gear
and Housing

33.7S, 122.5E (40 mi NE of
OWS
Esperance)
(Urine Separator]

N2Tank

AM

33.2S, 122.6E (60 mi NE of
Esperance)

Electronics Module

AM

33.5S, 122.3E (35 mi NE of
Esperance)

N2Sphere

AM

33.5S, 122.8E (49 mi ENE of
Esperance in
Neridup area)

Pressure Tank

IU

33.2S, 122.6E (60 mi NE of
Esperance)

10

�TABLE 1 (Continued)
RECOVERED SKYLAB DEBRIS

ITEMS

PROBABLE SOURCE

LOCATION

Film Vault Door

OWS

32.4S, 123.9E (5.5 mi NE of
Balladonia)

02Tank

AM

31.IS, 125.3E (5 mi S of
Rawlinna)

0.,Tank

AM

31.IS, 125.2E (15 mi SW of
Rawlinna)

Steel Fragment

31.IS, 125.4E (5 mi SE of
AM
Rawlinna)
(Part of 02 Tank)

Steel Dome

AM
(02 Tank)

31.2S, 125.2E (15 mi SW of
Rawlinna)

11

�I

FIGURE 1 PREDICTED SKYLAB RE-ENTRY SCENARIO
12

'

*

��BC2 ( &gt; BC3)
BC3{ &gt; BC4)
B C 4 - MINIMUM BC

FIGURE3 RELATIONSHIP OF FOOTPRINT SIZE TO
BREAKUP ALTITUDE AND BC
14

��1
o

ID

1
o

1
o
CO

1
o
CM

16

���</text>
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